Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 1)
The SPX index gained 39bps during yesterday’s session, closing at 6045. As I have continued to highlight over the past two weeks, the growing/rotating negative divergence between price and momentum/trend has created an odd setup.
Additionally, my Spot VIX and VIX Term structure signals are “risk on”. Contradictory and churning for almost 10 sessions now. As I have continued to write, “I will remain cautious until market internals and my ACAP signal line up.”
To that point, as yesterday’s price action was positive, the ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal shifted to Negative. This shift occurs on the close of the cash session at 4:15PM ET.
As unfortunate and heavy as the current headlines are, the model picked up on something and finally lined up with a signal that made sense. Risk is now clearly skewed to the downside with 5750 as a very attainable target.
Trade Support:
6000: Previous Support
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close
Trade Resistance:
6100: Previous Support
6147: All-Time High
