Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 3)
The SPX index gained 94bps yesterday, closing the session at 6033. This closing print came back above the 6000 level but below the identified short-term trendline. Despite this rally in price, my momentum and trend indicators are a net negative. My Spot VIX signal remains “risk on” but my VIX Term structure signal is now “neutral”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Negative. All in, the index seems reluctant to fail but internals remain divergent. As I said yesterday, “I believe risk is skewed to the downside for the near term with a reasonable target of 5750.”
Trade Support:
6000: Previous Support
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close
Trade Resistance:
6100: Previous Support
6147: All-Time High
