Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 1)
The SPX index lost 7bps during yesterday’s session, closing at 6225. Overall, the loss was minimal. However, every point is valuable as we settle off the recent, all-time high of 6284. As I have been writing over the past few days, there is some slight negative divergence developing. That is continuing in a very gradual and uniform fashion. My momentum and trend indicators are fading slightly. My Spot VIX signal is “neutral”. My VIX Term Structure signal is “risk on”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal has shifted to Neutral from Positive. Overall, although risk remains skewed to the upside, I have a growing concern that this leg of the rally is extended and losing steam. I would stick to the Neutral signal here and flatten out any long exposure to the index.
Trade Support:
6200: July 7 Low
6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)
6100: Previous Support
6000: Previous Support
Trade Resistance:
6284: All-Time High (Jul 3)
6390: Fibonacci Projection (Aug ’22 Low to Feb ’24 High)
