Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 2)
The SPX index gained 43bps yesterday, closing at 5631. Although breaking below on an intra-day basis, the 5600 level has continued to hold on a closing basis. The index is consolidating within the 5700/5600 range as momentum and trend indicators fade. My Spot VIX signal will shift from “risk on” to “flat” on the close and my VIX term structure signal remains neutral. I continue to believe that 5700 will act as significant resistance and that the index will resume its slide back towards the 5000 level in the near term.
Trade Support:
5000: ~20% Move Peak-to-Trough
4800: Dec 2021/Jan 2022 High
4200: ~50% Retracement Mar 2020 Low to Feb 2025 High
3700: ~Nov 2022 Low and 61.8% Retracement Mar 2020 Low to Feb 2025 High
Trade Resistance:
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close (BROKEN)
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough (BROKEN)
5561: 50dma (BROKEN)
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov (TESTED)
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
6000: Previous Support
