Current ICAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 4)
The SPX index was down just 7bps on Friday, closing out a whippy, range bound session at 5659. The index was unable to break above resistance at 5700, hitting a high of 5691 but held above the previous day’s low with a bottom tick of 5644. Momentum and trend indicators continue to consolidate as price sits just below 5700. My Spot VIX signal remains “flat”. My VIX term structure signal remains neutral. The ICAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Neutral. I continue to believe that 5700 will act as significant resistance (along with a horizontal 200dma at 5748) and that the index will resume its slide back towards the 5000 level in the near term. That would change for the near term if the index can breakout above 5700 with a confirming shift in the ICAP Model (and ideally a shift in the VIX term structure signal). For now, I continue to see risk as skewed to the downside.
Trade Support:
5000: ~20% Move Peak-to-Trough
4800: Dec 2021/Jan 2022 High
4200: ~50% Retracement Mar 2020 Low to Feb 2025 High
3700: ~Nov 2022 Low and 61.8% Retracement Mar 2020 Low to Feb 2025 High
Trade Resistance:
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close (BROKEN)
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough (BROKEN)
5551: 50dma (BROKEN)
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov (TESTED)
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
6000: Previous Support
