Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 7)
The SPX index rallied over 2% on the day, closing near session highs at 5921. I was absolutely wrong this time as I expected the index to break down further and test 5700 at a minimum. What has developed instead has been a hard bounce off the 100dma (ref 5766) and the 200dma (ref 5776). Additionally, my momentum and trend indicators, while they have faded, have not broken. My Spot VIX signal is now “risk on”. My VIX term structure signal is neutral. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Neutral. I see risk as very evenly distributed and am waiting patiently for the next ACAP signal to trigger.
Trade Support:
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close
Trade Resistance:
6000: Previous Support
6100: Previous Support
6147: All-Time High
