Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 8)
The SPX index fell 56bps during yesterday’s session, closing at 5888. The index remains within the highlighted support/resistance range of 5786/5968. Although my momentum and trend indicators are flat to down, the index is holding up much better than anticipated. The May 23 hard bounce off the 100dma and 200dma was impressive and much more aggressive than I expected. My Spot VIX signal is now “risk on”. My VIX term structure signal is neutral. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Neutral. As I wrote yesterday, “I see risk as very evenly distributed and am waiting patiently for the next ACAP signal to trigger.” I would note that although I now view the index and trades as “normalized”, I remain conscious of the fact that we are still in a high volatility regime with technical damage remaining from the recent Feb/Apr sell-off.
Trade Support:
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close
Trade Resistance:
6000: Previous Support
6100: Previous Support
6147: All-Time High
