Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 2)
The SPX index closed Friday’s session essentially flat at 5911 after recovering from an intraday loss of over 1% at the day’s low (ref 5843). The index remains within the highlighted support/resistance range of 5786/5968. Momentum and trend continue to degrade while my Spot VIX and VIX Term structure signals are “risk on”. While these signals are contradicting each other, the ACAP Signal trumps them all. That said, the ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal has shifted to Negative. As I wrote last Wednesday, “I would note that although I now view the index and trades as “normalized”, I remain conscious of the fact that we are still in a high volatility regime with technical damage remaining from the recent Feb/Apr sell-off.” All said, near term risk has shifted back to the downside.
Trade Support:
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close
Trade Resistance:
6000: Previous Support
6100: Previous Support
6147: All-Time High
