Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 4)
The SPX index lost 84bps yesterday, closing at 5982. Once again, the index continues to churn around the 6000 level (failing to hold) and remains below the highlighted short term trendline. I continue to see negative divergence between price and momentum/trend. My Spot VIX signal remains “risk on” but my VIX Term structure signal is “neutral”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Negative. In my opinion, near-term risk remains skewed to the downside with 5750 a very reasonable target.
Trade Support:
6000: Previous Support (BROKEN)
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close
Trade Resistance:
6100: Previous Support
6147: All-Time High
