Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 6)
The SPX index lost 22bps during Friday’s session, closing at 5967. Price action was more volatile than it would seem, with a high/low range of over 1%. Downside risk seems to be building as the index remains stuck below resistance at the 6000 level as the rate of momentum and trend degradation accelerates. VIX signal remains “risk on” but my VIX Term structure signal is “neutral”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Negative. The current index level is near all-time highs and seems reluctant to fade. However, my model suggests otherwise as do additional, yet subtle technical data points. All in, risk remains skewed to the downside with 5750 as a very reasonable target.
Note: I will be traveling the balance of the week. I will be posting the model signals on X but I will not be writing a full report. Have a great week. Thank you.
Trade Support:
6000: Previous Support (BROKEN)
5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough
5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov
5500: ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough
5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close
Trade Resistance:
6100: Previous Support
6147: All-Time High
