Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 5)
The SPX index gained just 6bps during yesterday’s session, closing well off the low (ref 6281) at 6309. The 10dma (ref 6278) acted as intraday support as my momentum and trend indicators remain negative to flat. My Spot VIX signal is “neutral”. My VIX Term Structure signal is “risk on”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal is Negative. As I wrote yesterday, “The current setup presents clear negative divergence between momentum/trend and price. I do see the potential for this divergence to resolve to the upside. However, the higher probability trade remains to the downside with a potential test of 6000 well within reason.” All that said, the index is screaming for a reason to test 6400 for the first time in history. I am sticking to the ACAP model and am positioned short here, but I have paired down exposure as this signal is not as clear as I would like.
Trade Support:
6200: July 7 Low
6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)
6100: Previous Support
6000: Previous Support
Trade Resistance:
6284: All-Time High (Jul 3) (BROKEN)
6390: Fibonacci Projection (Aug ’22 Low to Feb ’24 High)
