Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 1)
The SPX index lost 32bps during Friday’s session, closing at 6481 (previously highlighted resistance level). This modest loss came after the index hit yet another all-time intraday high at 6532. My momentum and trend indicators continued to improve. My Spot VIX signal is “neutral”. My VIX Term Structure signal remains “risk on”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal shifted back to Neutral. Friday’s high marked the 21st all-time high for 2025. While this seems aggressive, keep in mind that during the bull run in 2021 the index hit 70 new all-time closing highs. That said, as narrow and extended as the index may seem, there is a real potential for higher prices heading into year end. While I see significant negative divergence between price and internals, near-term price action continues to bend but not break. The ACAP signal has churned. This has kept me positioned flat in the portfolio, waiting for a better set up. As I wrote last week, “I believe price action has been relatively constructive. I expect a shift to Neutral (and Positive) in the near term as the index seems poised for a run higher.” The index seems to be following that path.
Trade Support:
6400: Previous All-Time High (July 28)
6200: July 7 Low
6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)
6100: Previous Support
6000: Previous Support
Trade Resistance:
6481: All-Time High (Aug 15) (TESTED)
6600: Mid-Point of Uptrend Channel
