Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 13)
The SPX index gained 59bps during Friday’s session, closing at 6643. As I wrote last week, “The index has found support, as expected, at 6600 and at the 20dma (ref 6561) which is included in the Bollinger Band overlay.” Momentum and trend indicators have faded but have not broken yet. My Spot VIX signal remains “neutral”. My VIX Term Structure signal remains “risk on”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Positive but is extremely close to a direct flip to Negative. All said, in my opinion, I would remain long the index above 6600 and reduce exposure on a break below and/or shift in the ACAP signal to Negative.
Trade Support:
6600: Previous Resistance (TESTED)
6400: Previous All-Time High (July 28)
6200: July 7 Low
6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)
Trade Resistance:
6802: Fibonacci Projection (123.6%)
7035: Fibonacci Projection (138.2%)
